Study Forecasts Continued Domination of Gasoline-Powered Vehicles Through 2040

Despite the fact that studies tend to get less accurate the further away into the future they aim to predict, this one seems realistic to me, given the current state of the car market in the US. The Detroit News quotes information put out by the Energy Information Administration that reads that “gasoline-powered vehicles will continue to dominate the market through 2040.”

The report announces a notable rise in all vehicles’ efficiency – the jump will be made from 2012’s average of 21.5 mpg to 37.2 mpg by 2040. By that time, it’s also expected that the overall energy consumption for everything that is included in the transport sector will also go down by 4 percent – this seems insignificant, given just how many billions are being poured into green tech development nowadays…

Also falling by 4 percent will be the number of gas-powered vehicles. Currently making up 82 percent of all vehicles on US roads, it’s expected to drop to 78 percent by the aforementioned year. We will apparently be more into micro-hybrids “and other advanced fuel technologies” – 42 percent of all vehicles.

However, the study doesn’t really see full hybrids making a big enough impact, and their share of the total market will rise from today’s 3 percent to 5 percent; popularity of diesels will double from today’s 2 percent share.

All of this is put into context by the expected rise in the price of gasoline too, from today’s $3.28 per gallon to around $3.90, while diesel is also expected to become more dear, at $4.73 per gallon, up from the current $3.87.

Keep in mind, again, that this is not actual information, but mere predictions based on the (downward) trend exhibited by the industry and the politicians who govern what it can and can’t do.

By Andrei Nedelea

PHOTO GALLERY

Mazda Says Next-Gen Skyactiv 2 Will Further Improve Efficiency by 30%

Mazda really ought to be appreciated for not mindlessly following the hybridization trend, choosing instead to perfect the art of building a traditional, conventional car via its Skyactiv program.

Now, AutoNews tells us that the Japanese manufacturer will continue to go in the same direction in the future, and that by the year 2020, Skyactiv 2 will have made its debut on the market, with efficiency improvements in the order of thirty percent compared to what we have now.

The way in which they plan to achieve this is via complete and clean burn of the (diesel or gasoline) fuel so that the engine is both more efficient and less polluting.

According to Mitsuo Hitomi, the executive officer in charge of powertrain development at Mazda, "If we want to dramatically improve fuel economy from here, the only route is through lean burning," adding that "the next step is the 2020 European regulations" (95 g/Km CO2).

One specific way through which the automaker aims to achieve its goals for gasoline engines is by raising the compression ratio, something that it has already done with the current crop of Skyactiv motors that run at 14:1 (very high compared to industry average) – they apparently want to raise that to 18:1.

Aside from that, they also want to employ what is called HCCI or homogenous charge compression ignition, which uses pressure to ignite the fuel/air mixture, instead of a traditional spark – it would burn petrol yet function along the same lines as diesel engines, basically.

The current problem with HCCI is that engines running in that way don’t really like to rev, mimicking the behavior of a diesel. This must be overcome, along with higher operating temperatures and pressures that will put extra strain on the entire system, require higher strength parts and ultimately end up being too expensive to be viable en masse.

Following the second gen Skyactiv will be Skyactiv 3, in the year 2025. The goal will be lowering emissions further to 65 g/Km CO2, and bringing a proportional increase in efficiency too.

By Andrei Nedelea

VIDEO

Bob Lutz Says the Chevrolet Volt Should Have Been a Truck

Former GM vice chairman Bob Lutz is questioning the auto industry’s judgment when it comes to electric vehicles. In an interview with the Seattle Times, the auto executive says electrification should have started with trucks, where the efficiency gains are way more significant.

“We started at the wrong end. The whole automotive industry made the intellectual mistake of thinking EVs were all about maximum range, so we all started with small vehicles that are basically very economical anyway,” said Lutz when asked if the Chevrolet Volt should have been a truck rather than a sedan.

“Yes, you do save fuel. You can use a smaller battery, but it makes less sense to take a 40 mpg vehicle and make it electric than it does to take a full-size pickup or SUV, which in town realistically gets 11 to 12 mpg. If you take that to 100 mpg, now you’re really saving money and saving a scarce natural resource and reducing CO2 emissions drastically,” he explained.

Lutz added that the electrification of full-size pickup trucks and SUVs will also help keep these “endangered species” within the strict limits of fuel-economy regulations.

“Bigger trucks are the only electrified vehicles that I know of that make instant economic sense because the fuel saving is so large that you will more than get back your monthly lease price,” Lutz says. He added that electric trucks would also have the advantage of exportable power, acting as an emergency power generator in case there’s a power outage.

While Lutz’s opinions may have something to do with his role as chairman of VIA Motors, an Utah-based company that converts GM trucks, cargo vans and passenger vans into extended-range electric vehicles, one has to admit he does have a point.

By Dan Mihalascu

PHOTO GALLERY