Despite the fact that studies tend to get less accurate the further away into the future they aim to predict, this one seems realistic to me, given the current state of the car market in the US. The Detroit News quotes information put out by the Energy Information Administration that reads that “gasoline-powered vehicles will continue to dominate the market through 2040.”
The report announces a notable rise in all vehicles’ efficiency – the jump will be made from 2012’s average of 21.5 mpg to 37.2 mpg by 2040. By that time, it’s also expected that the overall energy consumption for everything that is included in the transport sector will also go down by 4 percent – this seems insignificant, given just how many billions are being poured into green tech development nowadays…
Also falling by 4 percent will be the number of gas-powered vehicles. Currently making up 82 percent of all vehicles on US roads, it’s expected to drop to 78 percent by the aforementioned year. We will apparently be more into micro-hybrids “and other advanced fuel technologies” – 42 percent of all vehicles.
However, the study doesn’t really see full hybrids making a big enough impact, and their share of the total market will rise from today’s 3 percent to 5 percent; popularity of diesels will double from today’s 2 percent share.
All of this is put into context by the expected rise in the price of gasoline too, from today’s $3.28 per gallon to around $3.90, while diesel is also expected to become more dear, at $4.73 per gallon, up from the current $3.87.
Keep in mind, again, that this is not actual information, but mere predictions based on the (downward) trend exhibited by the industry and the politicians who govern what it can and can’t do.
By Andrei Nedelea